LONDON — Analysts predict a decrease in oil prices as trading recommences on Monday, following Israel’s counterstrike on Iran over the weekend. The attack, which avoided Tehran’s oil and nuclear facilities, did not cause any disruption to energy supplies.
Both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures saw a 4% increase last week amidst fluctuating trade. This was due to the market’s anticipation of Israel’s reaction to the Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1 and the upcoming U.S. election.
Israeli jets carried out three rounds of strikes against missile factories and other locations near Tehran and in western Iran before dawn on Saturday. This is the most recent development in the escalating conflict between the two Middle Eastern nations.
“The market can now exhale a sigh of relief; the uncertainty surrounding Israel’s response to Iran has been resolved,” stated Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx, on LinkedIn.
“The Israeli attack took place after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken left the region, and the U.S. administration could not have hoped for a better outcome with the U.S. elections just around the corner.”
Iran downplayed Israel’s overnight air attack on Iranian military targets on Saturday, stating that it only caused minimal damage.
“The fact that Israel did not target oil infrastructure, and reports that Iran will not retaliate to the strike, removes a layer of uncertainty,” commented Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst in Sydney.
“It’s highly probable that we’ll see a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ type reaction when the crude oil futures markets reopen tomorrow,” he added, suggesting that WTI may drop to $70 a barrel.
Tchilinguirian anticipates a rapid deflation of the geopolitical risk premium that had been factored into oil prices, with Brent likely to drop back to $74 to $75 a barrel.
Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS, also predicts a dip in oil prices on Monday, given Israel’s measured response to Iran’s attack.
“However, I expect this downward trend to be temporary, as I believe the market didn’t factor in a significant risk premium,” he added.
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