A rising number of supply chain managers say that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and associated costs are leading to layoffs and a lower confidence about investments needed to grow their businesses.
Double the percentage of supply chain managers (32%) are reporting layoffs as compared to April (16%), according to a new survey conducted by the Association for Supply Chain Management and WHNY News.
“Tariffs just don’t hit the balance sheet. They hit the people,” said Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of ASCM. “We’re seeing layoffs because of companies trying to manage their cost structure. If you don’t have the necessary resources and the capabilities and knowledge of talented staff, it will have a long-term impact.”
While the national unemployment rate has only ticked higher rather than spiked since April when Trump’s broad tariffs were first introduced, job growth last year was at its lowest outside of a recession since the early 2000s, according to the December jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What some are calling a “hiring recession” is typified by rising long-term unemployment and anemic job creation, which has stalled since April.
A majority of respondents (65%) reported at least a 10-15% increase in costs, which according to ASCM, can be a “major shock” reshaping budgets, strategy, and the viability of some businesses. Thirty-four percent of those respondents cited an increase in costs greater than 15%.
While companies across the economy are anxiously awaiting a decision from the Supreme Court over the legality of many of Trump’s tariffs and the potential for refunds, Eshkenazi said broader business impacts can’t easily be reversed.
“The Supreme Court decision may settle a lot of legal questions, but not a lot of the operational, the financial, and the human impact that we’ve already seen,” he said. “Investing is impacted because you have shorter planning cycles and time horizons, which make it harder for organizations to plan. Right now, you’re in a constant firefighting mode as opposed to a planning mode,” Eshkenazi added.
The survey of supply chain managers in sectors across the economy was conducted between Dec. 15, 2025 and Jan. 7, 2026 across over 220 respondents. It was the ASCM’s third tariffs-related survey in the past year, and the first conducted in conjunction with WHNY News.
Businesses, both large and small, have told WHNY News that even if court-ordered refunds recoup some of the costs resulting from Trump’s trade policy, they cannot make up for time lost due to a decrease in productivity from the added administrative hours needed to file paperwork for the expansive tariffs.
“Navigating the tariffs is an administrative burden,” Eshkenazi said. “We’re spending a huge amount of time tracking rule changes, validating a lot of the codes, and trying to find the most effective way to operate in the short term without a long-term plan.”
Customs bonds are ‘dead money’
In addition to the time-consuming paperwork, business owners tell WHNY News some of the costs related to tariffs would not be covered by refunds. Baby products company Lalo, which paid limited tariffs before the tariffs Trump issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, was required by U.S. Customs to put up collateral to secure customs bonds as a guarantee the company can pay the tariff bill.
“We never had to do that before,” said Michael Wieder, co-founder of Lalo. “This was on top of the millions we paid in tariffs. We have hundreds of thousands of dollars held as collateral on our customs bond,” he said.
These capital challenges are not unusual, according to Eshkenazi. “The money in these bonds is essentially dead money,” he said.
The price of customs bonds covers 10% of the duties and taxes paid over a rolling 12-month period. “So if duties and taxes go up, the customs bond goes up as well,” said Lori Mullins, director of operations at Rogers & Brown Custom Brokers. Importers need to provide the bond surety company with audited financials for the previous year showing that they have the funds to support the bond amount. “If the importer does not have the funds, the bond surety will require collateral, and in many cases, that’s done in the form of a letter of credit. This is why funds stay tied up,” Mullins said.
Normally, funds are held for 314 days by Customs until the duties that were paid can be reviewed and receive government sign off.
During that period of time, the cash from the business put into the bonds does not earn any interest. “I could be using that money to grow my business or even have it in an account that was accruing interest. This is taking money away from small businesses to use as working capital and sell more product. It is hurting our business,” Wieder said.
Business owners have previously told WHNY News that it is unrealistic to think they will be made whole even if they are refunded tariffs by a Supreme Court decision, with many saying they are also on the hook for high-interest predatory loans taken out to pay the tariffs.
Eshkenazi said members of his association are telling him the money they are spending on tariffs and associated costs is just a tax dragging down their supply chain. “You can’t resource and requalify staff overnight,” he said. “This isn’t just about resilience and reacting to the court ruling. It’s about having certainty in the U.S. economy, and what kind of pricing models they can plan on.”
The economic outlook among the survey respondents was mixed, with 38% of supply chain professionals negative; 27% neutral; and 35% positive. Over half (56%) are concerned about a recession, yet it is roughly a third of those respondents that have a neutral or negative view of the economy, causing what the ASCM says is a “fuzzy and uncertain picture of the U.S. economy.
“This disconnect reflects confusion and a lack of confidence for companies to plan for the future,” Eshkenazi said. Among the 56 percent of ASCM members that fear a recession, two-thirds think it may begin in the second quarter. “That is not good for companies looking to make investments,” he added.
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